СТРУКТУРНА ТРАНСФОРМАЦІЯ ЕКОНОМІКИ ВЕЛИКОЇ БРИТАНІЇ ВНАСЛІДОК BREXIT: КОМПАРАТИВНИЙ АНАЛІЗ
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32782/2413-9971/2026-59-9Ключові слова:
Велика Британія, Вrexit, ЄС, США, валовий внутрішній продукт, експорт, імпорт, інвестиції, міграція, торговельні партнери, законодавча база, глобалізація, фрагментаціяАнотація
У статті досліджується структурна трансформація економіки Великої Британії внаслідок Brexit на основі компаративного аналізу періодів до та після виходу з ЄС. Розглянуто ключові економічні передумови Brexit, зокрема критику фінансових внесків до бюджету ЄС та протекціоністської політики союзу. Ідентифіковано основні канали впливу на національну економіку: зростання невизначеності, зниження довіри інвесторів, підвищення вартості фінансування та трансформацію торговельних потоків. Виокремлено секторальні й регіональні диспропорції у адаптації до нових умов. Визначено кардинальні зміни міграційних моделей з переорієнтацією на громадян країн поза ЄС. Зазначено істотне зменшення торгівлі з ЄС на тлі формування партнерств з США. Розглянуто трансформацію законодавчої бази через збереження законів ЄС у національному праві. Зроблено висновок про обмеження довгострокового потенціалу зростання через втрату доступу до єдиного ринку та структурні деформації у продуктивності й інвестиційній привабливості.
Посилання
Fernandes A. P., Winters L. A. Exporters and shocks: The impact of the Brexit vote shock on bilateral exports to the UK. Journal of International Economics. 2021. Vol. 131. Article 103489. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103489
Buigut S., Kapar B. How Did Brexit Impact UK Trading at the Country Level? Evidence from Real Data. The International Trade Journal. 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/08853908.2025.2463375
Eurostat. Share of Member States in EU GDP. Eurostat News. 2017. URL: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/DDN-20170410-1
Crafts N. EU Membership: A Cost-Benefit Analysis for the UK. Annales des Mines - Réalités industrielles. 2021. No. 1 (Février). P. 5–8. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3917/rindu1.211.0005
Mitchell I., Hughes S. The UK’s Fiscal Contribution to the EU Budget and its International Element. Center for Global Development (CGD Note). 2020. URL: https://www.cgdev.org/publication/uks-fiscal-contribution-eu-budget-and-its-international-element
Minford P., Mahambare V., Nowell E. Should Britain Leave the EU? An Economic Analysis of a Troubled Relationship. Cheltenham : Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd. in association with the Institute of Economic Affairs. 2005. 254 р.
Brexit: what the European Union loses. Statista. 2020. URL: https://www.statista.com/chart/20677/brexit-what-the-eu-loses/?srsltid=AfmBOoqmj3zxmftf5_bCOJ6zKeQ2QNSB6YPCSs8bP4OaookBKS4FrRda
Brexit: the financial settlement – in detail (Briefing Paper No. 8039). House of Commons Library. 2020 URL: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/CBP-8039/
European Union Finances Statement 2024: Statement on the implementation of the Withdrawal Agreement. HM Treasury (UK Government). 2025. URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/european-union-finances-statement-2024-statement-on-the-implementation-of-the-withdrawal-agreement/european-union-finances-statement-2024-statement-on-the-implementation-of-the-withdrawal-agreement-html
Gross domestic product per capita in the United Kingdom from 1955 to 2024. Statista. 2025. URL: https://www.statista.com/statistics/970672/gdp-per-capita-in-the-uk/
Gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in the United Kingdom. Statista. 2025. URL: https://www.statista.com/statistics/263613/gross-domestic-product-gdp-growth-rate-in-the-united-kingdom/?srsltid=AfmBOooF4ntvTT-hX-3sIEb4j4TDZjuLEGF2ndJufw5LKNL7J1CVbSuN
Bloom N., Bunn P., Mizen P., Smietanka P., Thwaites G. The Economic Impact of Brexit. NBER Working Paper No. 34459. 2025. DOI: 10.3386/w34459. URL: https://www.nber.org/papers/w34459
Abu Summaqa Y. UK macro data suggests sterling may struggle through early 2026. Equiti Breaking Data. 2026. URL: https://www.equiti.com/jo-en/news/breaking-data/uk-macro-data-suggests-sterling-may-struggle-through-early-2026/
Migration Observatory. Pulling power: Why are EU citizens migrating to the UK? (Pre-referendum). Commentary. Oxford : COMPAS, University of Oxford, 2016. URL: https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/pulling-power-eu-citizens-migrating-uk/
Migration Statistics Quarterly Report: August 2020. Office for National Statistics. 2020. URL: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/august2020#main-points
Employment in the UK: August 2020. Office for National Statistics. 2020. URL: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/employmentintheuk/august2020
Sumption M. Net migration to the UK. Briefing. Oxford: Migration Observatory, COMPAS, University of Oxford. 2025. URL: https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/
Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending June 2024. Office for National Statistics. 2024. URL: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingjune2024
National population projections: 2022-based. Office for National Statistics. 2025. URL: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2022based
Baier S. L., Bergstrand J. H., Egger P., McLaughlin P. A. Do Economic Integration Agreements Actually Work? Issues in Understanding the Causes and Consequences of the Growth of Regionalism. The World Economy. 2008. Vol. 31, No. 4. P. 461–497.
Gupta R., Hasan M. M., Islam S. Z., Yasmin T., Uddin J. Evaluating the Brexit and COVID-19's influence on the UK economy: A data analysis. PLOS ONE. 2023. Vol. 18, No. 6. Article e0287342. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0287342
EU-UK trade flows: continuities, changes and trends. European Parliament (European Parliamentary Research Service Briefing). 2025. URL: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2025/765767/EPRS_BRI%282025%29765767_EN.pdf
Low H., Caswell B. Five Years On: The Economic Impact of Brexit. National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) (blog). 2025. URL: https://niesr.ac.uk/blog/five-years-economic-impact-brexit
European Parliamentary Research Service EU-UK trade. 2024. URL: https://epthinktank.eu/2024/12/18/eu-uk-relations-towards-a-stronger-partnership-in-uneasy-times/eu-uk-trade/
Kren J., Lawless M. How has Brexit changed EU-UK trade flows? The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) Working Paper No. 735. 2022. URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/272962/1/1822267129.pdf
United Kingdom (GBR) profile. The Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC). 2025. URL: https://oec.world/en/profile/country/gbr
Tsiapa M., Kallioras D., Manetos P., Pérez-Balsalobre S. Brexit’s ripple effect: transformations in European interregional trade. Regional Studies. 2025. Vol. 59, No. 1 (2025). DOI: 10.1080/00343404.2025.2518279. URL: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/4ad2ec10cd041405ac92a0bb11a57edc165d0335
Brexit’s long-term impact on UK and EU businesses. Open A European Company (blog). 2025. URL: https://www.openaeuropeancompany.com/blog/brexits-long-term-impact-on-uk-and-eu-businesses/
US UK Trade Deal 2025: What this FTA means for global trade. USImportData (blog). 2025. URL: https://www.usimportdata.com/blogs/us-uk-trade-deal-2025-fta-explained
Implementing the General Terms of the United States of America United Kingdom Economic Prosperity Deal. The White House (Presidential Actions). 2025. URL: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/06/implementing-the-general-terms-of-the-united-states-of-america-united-kingdom-economic-prosperity-deal/
Katanich D. The UK's weak economic growth and Brexit: Is the worst over? Euronews Business. 2025. URL: https://www.euronews.com/business/2025/07/25/why-is-the-uk-struggling-with-its-gdp-growth-and-is-brexit-to-blame
Retained EU Law dashboard. UK Department for Business and Trade. 2025. URL: https://reul.businessandtrade.gov.uk/dashboard
Fernandes A. P., Winters L. A. (2021). Exporters and shocks: The impact of the Brexit vote shock on bilateral exports to the UK. Journal of International Economics. Vol. 131. Article 103489. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103489
Buigut S., Kapar B. (2025). How Did Brexit Impact UK Trading at the Country Level? Evidence from Real Data. The International Trade Journal. 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/08853908.2025.2463375
Eurostat. (2017). Share of Member States in EU GDP. Eurostat News. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/DDN-20170410-1
Crafts N. (2021). EU Membership: A Cost-Benefit Analysis for the UK. Annales des Mines – Réalités industrielles. No. 1 (Février). рр. 5–8. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3917/rindu1.211.0005
Mitchell I., Hughes S. (2020). The UK’s Fiscal Contribution to the EU Budget and its International Element. Center for Global Development (CGD Note). Available at: https://www.cgdev.org/publication/uks-fiscal-contribution-eu-budget-and-its-international-element
Minford P., Mahambare V., Nowell E. (2005). Should Britain Leave the EU? An Economic Analysis of a Troubled Relationship. Cheltenham : Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd. in association with the Institute of Economic Affairs. 254 р.
Brexit: what the European Union loses. (2020). Statista. Available at: https://www.statista.com/chart/20677/brexit-what-the-eu-loses/?srsltid=AfmBOoqmj3zxmftf5_bCOJ6zKeQ2QNSB6YPCSs8bP4OaookBKS4FrRda
Brexit: the financial settlement – in detail (Briefing Paper No. 8039). (2020). House of Commons Library. Available at: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/CBP-8039/
European Union Finances Statement 2024: Statement on the implementation of the Withdrawal Agreement. (2025). HM Treasury (UK Government). Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/european-union-finances-statement-2024-statement-on-the-implementation-of-the-withdrawal-agreement/european-union-finances-statement-2024-statement-on-the-implementation-of-the-withdrawal-agreement-html
Gross domestic product per capita in the United Kingdom from 1955 to 2024. (2025). Statista. Available at: https://www.statista.com/statistics/970672/gdp-per-capita-in-the-uk/
Gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in the United Kingdom. (2025). Statista. Available at: https://www.statista.com/statistics/263613/gross-domestic-product-gdp-growth-rate-in-the-united-kingdom/?srsltid=AfmBOooF4ntvTT-hX-3sIEb4j4TDZjuLEGF2ndJufw5LKNL7J1CVbSuN
Bloom N., Bunn P., Mizen P., Smietanka P., Thwaites G. (2025). The Economic Impact of Brexit. NBER Working Paper No. 34459. DOI: 10.3386/w34459. Available at: https://www.nber.org/papers/w34459
Abu Summaqa Y. (2026). UK macro data suggests sterling may struggle through early 2026. Equiti Breaking Data. Available at: https://www.equiti.com/jo-en/news/breaking-data/uk-macro-data-suggests-sterling-may-struggle-through-early-2026/
Migration Observatory. (2016). Pulling power: Why are EU citizens migrating to the UK? (Pre-referendum). Commentary. Oxford : COMPAS, University of Oxford. Available at: https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/pulling-power-eu-citizens-migrating-uk/
Migration Statistics Quarterly Report: August 2020. (2020). Office for National Statistics. Available at: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/august2020#main-points
Employment in the UK: August 2020. (2020). Office for National Statistics. Available at: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/employmentintheuk/august2020
Sumption M. (2025). Net migration to the UK. Briefing. Oxford: Migration Observatory, COMPAS, University of Oxford. Available at: https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/
Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending June 2024. (2024). Office for National Statistics. Available at: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingjune2024
National population projections: 2022-based. (2025). Office for National Statistics. Available at: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2022based
Baier S. L., Bergstrand J. H., Egger P., McLaughlin P. A. (2008). Do Economic Integration Agreements Actually Work? Issues in Understanding the Causes and Consequences of the Growth of Regionalism. The World Economy. Vol. 31, No. 4. рр. 461–497.
Gupta R., Hasan M. M., Islam S. Z., Yasmin T., Uddin J. (2023). Evaluating the Brexit and COVID-19's influence on the UK economy: A data analysis. PLOS ONE. Vol. 18, No. 6. Article e0287342. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0287342
EU-UK trade flows: continuities, changes and trends. (2025). European Parliament (European Parliamentary Research Service Briefing). Available at: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2025/765767/EPRS_BRI%282025%29765767_EN.pdf
Low H., Caswell B. (2025). Five Years On: The Economic Impact of Brexit. National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) (blog). Available at: https://niesr.ac.uk/blog/five-years-economic-impact-brexit
European Parliamentary Research Service EU-UK trade. (2024). Available at: https://epthinktank.eu/2024/12/18/eu-uk-relations-towards-a-stronger-partnership-in-uneasy-times/eu-uk-trade/
Kren J., Lawless M. (2022). How has Brexit changed EU-UK trade flows? The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) Working Paper No. 735. Available at: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/272962/1/1822267129.pdf
United Kingdom (GBR) profile. (2025). The Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC). Available at: https://oec.world/en/profile/country/gbr
Tsiapa M., Kallioras D., Manetos P., Pérez-Balsalobre S. (2025). Brexit’s ripple effect: transformations in European interregional trade. Regional Studies. Vol. 59, No. 1 (2025). DOI: 10.1080/00343404.2025.2518279. Available at: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/4ad2ec10cd041405ac92a0bb11a57edc165d0335
Brexit’s long-term impact on UK and EU businesses. (2025). Open A European Company (blog). Available at: https://www.openaeuropeancompany.com/blog/brexits-long-term-impact-on-uk-and-eu-businesses/
US UK Trade Deal 2025: What this FTA means for global trade. (2025). USImportData (blog). available at: https://www.usimportdata.com/blogs/us-uk-trade-deal-2025-fta-explained
Implementing the General Terms of the United States of America United Kingdom Economic Prosperity Deal. (2025). The White House (Presidential Actions). Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/06/implementing-the-general-terms-of-the-united-states-of-america-united-kingdom-economic-prosperity-deal/
Katanich D. (2025). The UK's weak economic growth and Brexit: Is the worst over? Euronews Business. Available at: https://www.euronews.com/business/2025/07/25/why-is-the-uk-struggling-with-its-gdp-growth-and-is-brexit-to-blame
Retained EU Law dashboard. (2025). UK Department for Business and Trade. Available at: https://reul.businessandtrade.gov.uk/dashboard
##submission.downloads##
Опубліковано
Номер
Розділ
Ліцензія
Авторське право (c) 2026 М.М. Король, М.М. Медвідь
Ця робота ліцензується відповідно до Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
