SCENARIO-INDICATIVE APPROACH TO DETERMINING THE PROSPECTS FOR MARITIME AND RIVER TOURISM IN UKRAINE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32782/2413-9971/2026-59-7Keywords:
maritime tourism, river tourism, water tourism, scenario approach, indicative approach, integral indicator, development indicators, prospects, strategic management, tourism and recreation complex of UkraineAbstract
The article reveals the possibilities of a scenario-indicative approach to determining the prospects for the development of maritime and river tourism in Ukraine in conditions of increased uncertainty in the external environment, security restrictions, and instability in investment processes. The aim of the study is to develop an applied methodology for comparative assessment of the prospects of two segments of water tourism by combining scenario modeling with an indicative system of performance indicators. The methodology includes the selection and normalization of 15 indicators grouped into five thematic blocks. Each indicator is weighted based on its significance under different development scenarios. This approach allows for scenario-sensitive assessment and supports strategic decision-making at national and regional levels. The methodological basis consists of scenario analysis, indicative assessment, normalization of heterogeneous indicators, expert weighting, and integral index modeling. A system of indicators is proposed, grouped into five interrelated blocks: security, infrastructure, market, economic and investment, and management and digital, which provides a comprehensive reflection of demand factors, resource readiness, effects on territories, and management capacity. A formalized algorithm has been developed for calculating an integral indicator of prospects for maritime and river tourism under baseline, optimistic, and risky scenarios, which allows moving from descriptive assessments to quantitative ranking of development directions. The results of the integrated assessment showed that, in the baseline scenario, river tourism is more promising than sea tourism. In the optimistic scenario, sea tourism (IP = 0.78) has an advantage over river tourism (IP = 0.71), ΔIP = +0.07, which reflects a higher potential for scaling up in the context of increased investment and modernization of port infrastructure. In the risk scenario, the integral indicator for sea tourism drops to 0.40, while river tourism remains relatively stable (IP = 0.58), and the gap in favor of river tourism increases to ΔIP = -0.18.
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